Large electric vehicle makers are reporting a slowdown in sales in 2024. If you plan to invest in the electric vehicle market, find out the key facts of 2024 below.

The Current Trend in Global Electric Vehicle Market Environment in 2024

Nearly 269,000 electric vehicles were sold in the United States in the first three months of this year, according to Kelley Blue Book. That was a 2.6 percent increase from the same period last year, but a 7.3 decrease from the final quarter of 2023. And amid the quarter-to-quarter slowdown in the industry, Tesla’s market share has fallen from 62 percent at the start of 2023 to 51 percent now.

Tesla sales fell more than 13 percent compared with the first quarter last year, while most of its emerging competitors saw double or even triple-digit growth. Legacy car brands like Hyundai, Mercedes, and BMW have also increased their E.V. sales and chipped away at Tesla’s market share.

Meanwhile, Ford’s E.V. market share jumped to 7.4 percent from 4.2 percent in the past year, making it the second-largest electric vehicle brand in the United States. Ford, however, announced this month that it was slowing down its E.V. production plans in response to slowing demand.

The increased competition comes as President Biden has sought to promote the transition to E.V.s. Mr. Biden has set the ambitious goal of having E.V.s make up half of all cars sold in the country by 2030. Currently, they make up less than 20 percent of new vehicle registrations.

In May US President Joe Biden announced steep rises in tariffs on imports of Chinese EVs, batteries, and solar panels amid concerns that a flood of imports driven by overcapacity and subsidies would damage US producers. The EU is also expected to introduce new tariffs.

Chinese EV producers are reportedly rushing to ship vehicles to Brazil and Mexico amid speculation that they are planning to introduce high tariffs.

Chinese sales have been buoyed by sales to Russia where imports of EV’s from many other countries of origin have been stopped and grey market (smuggled) cars are attracting eye-watering premiums.

Moscow is littered with new Chinese EV’s that suffered battery problems in the cold winter. Charging a lithium-ion battery when its internal temperature is below 4 °C  / 25 °F can cause long-term and permanent damage to the battery.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has talked of global markets “being flooded with cheaper Chinese electric cars” and “huge state subsidies” keeping prices artificially low. Last September the EU Commission opened an investigation into whether to apply punitive tariffs on Chinese EV imports to the region. That the investigation is not universally popular among European carmakers illustrates the global nature of the car industry. VW and Mercedes-Benz manufacture in China at scale and have warned that any EU action against Chinese EV imports risks retaliation. (In the first four months of this year foreign marques, principally Japanese, German, and US automakers, accounted for 40% of Chinese car sales.)

How are various countries reacting to the potential changes in the electric vehicle market that may affect an investment strategy?

Given the political climate, it is hard to see Chinese automakers setting up shop in the US. However, manufacturing cars in Mexico for the US market would, under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, allow Chinese carmakers to avoid US tariffs (Mr Trump has already said he would introduce 200% tariffs on such cars and Bloomberg reports that the Biden administration is seeking ways to counter Mexican-made Chinese imports). Europe seems likely to be more receptive to Chinese inward investment. France’s finance minister has said that Chinese carmakers are welcome to open plants in France.

Earlier this year China’s BYD, the world’s biggest EV maker, announced it would build an assembly plant in Hungary.

Electric vehicles and China are remaking the auto industry. Governments are determined that they, at least as much as consumers, will shape the outcome of this contest.

How to Invest in the Electric Vehicle Sector?

One easy way individual investors can gain exposure to EVs is through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This avoids the risks associated with trying to cherry-pick the winning individual companies by buying shares/stocks.

Essentially, an electric vehicle ETF holds a basket of publicly traded stocks in the industry. These companies can either directly manufacture electric vehicles, and automotive parts or provide services that support the evolution of electric cars.

This niche area of the ETF market remains relatively uncrowded, with only a handful of players in the space. Before investing, consider reviewing the fund’s prospectus to better understand the investment strategy, holdings, and fees.

Blackrock iShares and Global X come to mind as two popular providers.

What Are the Risks Associated with Investing in the Electric Vehicle Market?

According to the IEA, the growth and impact of the EV industry depend heavily on how successful policymakers are in developing a comprehensive framework that supports the industry.

Apart from EV adoption rates, the decarbonization of electricity generators and building a global charging network, for example, are fundamental. But, beyond those efforts, shifting to sustainable business practices, such as efficient waste management, will also be crucial for long-term success.

Another view might be that EV’s will quickly be phased out in favour of hydrogen. Take the analogy of CD’s in the music market. CD’s quickly killed the market for vinyl and cassettes due to their associated advantages but rapidly became obsolete upon the advent of MP3 and streaming technology. Could the environmental cost of car batteries and the charging of them contribute to a similar replacement in the not-too-distant future?

Ingenium Financial offers regulated financial advice that can include the formation of custom-made or bespoke portfolios in tax-efficient structures, which can include risk-adjusted investments in the electric vehicle sector.  Get in touch.

Why Am I Asked For My NIF Number in Every Shop in Portugal? 

 Those holidaying or fairly new to Portugal might wonder why they are continually asked for their NIF or ‘ contribuinte’ tax number. You can be asked while paying for things in shops, particularly in supermarkets, pharmacies, restaurants, etc.

Initially, you might think that it’s Big Brother tracking your every move and keeping tabs on your personal spending. You would not be alone if you felt it was no one else’s business but yours and yours alone, when and where you spend your money. And indeed, you would have a point! 

One of the first theories you might hear is that it is to keep shops and service providers honest and helps to counter tax evasion. It is especially fair to think that is the case with regard to a cash transaction. There is an element of truth in it, which will be expanded upon later on in this article. 

You might also find it slightly annoying that you are continually asked for your NIF. Perhaps you have a similar feeling when you sit down at a restaurant and, without having asked for anything,  along comes the couvert of bread, olives, butter, and sardine pate! 

The prompting of the question is actually an advantage to the majority of the population. 

Tax Residents and NIF number

The tax residents of Portugal can receive income tax relief on receipts that contain their NIF.  Like a full VAT (or sales tax) invoice, they are tied to you individually. Any tax resident can receive a benefit for items such as groceries, car maintenance, sports, etc.

Tax deductible expenses can also be obtained in categories such as health, education, housing, nursing homes, and a few others. You can only obtain these allowances if the receipt has been issued with your personal NIF. 

Other expenses have specific tax benefits too. They are hairdressing and beauty services, workshops and car repair services, restaurant and hotel expenses, veterinary services, and monthly passes for the use of public transportation. In all cases, it is mandatory to have a receipt with your personal NIF to benefit from the tax benefits available. 

The net effect on an employed person is relatively minor, but the Portuguese are a thrifty bunch and, as we know, every little helps! 

Non-Tax  Residents and NIF number

If you own a property and buy an item that structurally improves your property, for example a new air conditioning unit or some paving slabs  – do get a receipt (or fatura) which includes your personal NIF.

If you have work done by a contractor, only receipts that include your NIF will count as legitimate expenses that can off-set your deemed capital gain, when it comes to the sale of the property.

If you pay a builder in cash and do not receive an invoice with your NIF stated, it will not be considered legitimate in offsetting future capital gains tax.

If you buy a car from a dealer and ever need to pursue a warranty claim with an ombudsman, having a receipt with your NIF legitimises your purchase.

Self-employment, limited companies, and NIF number

For around 15% of the population, the benefits are much greater. Those who are self-employed can offset 100% of the expense against their income tax liability. There are fewer restrictions on what is deemed an allowable expense than in other countries.  

Showing full tax receipts is also important for the several hundred thousand limited companies. Their directors, managers, and employees need to present full receipts or ‘fatura com contribuinte’ to obtain reimbursement or legitimise the tax offset. 

Larger stores, such as supermarket chains, train their staff to prompt the NIF question as part of their customer service. Even though the purchase of groceries is probably the category that offers the least benefit. 

I’m sure you agree that Portugal is a wonderful country inhabited by wonderful people! 

As an ‘expat’ or recent immigrant you might not yet appreciate the culture of solidarity. In other words, each making a contribution to the provision of the social and welfare system of the country. Embedded in a warm and friendly culture is that of everyone doing their bit and that means paying a reasonable amount of tax and indeed, keeping everyone somewhat honest when it comes to the charging and payment of sale tax (IVA or VAT). 

 Rights and obligations

When you become a tax resident of Portugal, you should be submitting a tax return each year by March 31st. Once you spend more than 183 days in the country in any one tax year which runs from January to December – you are deemed to be a tax resident.

Becoming a tax resident may impact your financial life in ways that you are not aware of. If you are considering making Portugal your home or arrived relatively recently, do reach out to Ingenium Financial. We offer a complimentary initial conversation to fully understand the potential impact on your assets and income. 

Contact us

The Portuguese government has taken significant actions to terminate two prominent foreign investment programs. On the 6th of October, the “Mais Habitação Law” put an end to the real estate avenue to acquiring a Golden Visa, and just two days later, they announced the discontinuation of the Non-Habitual Resident (NHR) regime, with material implications hitting in 2024.

An alternative has been put in place however these are less likely to appeal or apply to Clients of Ingenium Financial and will likely not attract as many talented professionals who would have previously come to Portugal under the NHR program.

The replacement initiative is directed towards those deemed ‘researchers’ and ‘highly qualified workers’. It provides them with comparable requirements and advantages to the previous NHR program. These beneficiaries must establish their residence in Portugal for at least 183 days annually to be eligible for a special 20% IRS tax rate for a period of 10 years. As before, this is only applicable to individuals who have not been fiscal residents in Portugal for the preceding five years.

You may still be able to qualify for the previously popular NHR status but since January 2024 it has become more of a challenge and less certain your application will be waived through what was previously a quick and easy online process.

The Non-Habitual Resident (NHR) status must be applied for with the Portuguese tax authorities by March 31, 2024, if you are already resident for the preceding tax year ending December 2023.

If you expect to become a resident in Portugal by 31 December 2024

or, on December the 31^st  2024, you would be able to meet the following conditions to qualify as a tax resident;

Individuals, both foreigners and Portuguese, who have not been tax residents in Portugal in the preceding 5 years, but who have now become Portuguese tax residents and who meet one of the following conditions:

– Having a job offer or an employment contract, secondment agreement, or similar document signed by December 31, 2023, for positions to be carried out in Portuguese territory.

(The work contract element is more likely to be of importance to Portuguese nationals eyeing a return as typical Clients tend to be business owners or retired).

– Entering into a lease agreement or another contract that grants them the use or possession of a property in Portuguese territory by October 10, 2023.

– Having a reservation contract or a promise of acquisition of real estate in Portuguese territory, entered into by October 10, 2023.

– Enrolling or registering dependents in an educational institution located in Portuguese territory by October 10, 2023.

– Holding a residence visa or residence permit valid until December 31, 2023.

– Initiating the necessary procedures for obtaining a residence visa or residence permit by December 31, 2023, including scheduling an interview or submitting an application to the relevant authorities.

As mentioned, the implementation of the 2024 State Budget saw the Portuguese government repeal the NHR regime that previously offered numerous tax advantages, including exemptions on various income types like pensions and dividends.

Nonetheless, it remains feasible to apply for NHR status in 2024, provided that you establish tax residency in Portugal during that year and satisfy specific conditions.

In theory, The Non-Habitual Resident (NHR) status must be applied for with the Portuguese tax authorities by March 31, 2025.

Notwithstanding the mentioned deadline, the Arbitration Court (CAAD) has on several occasions decided that the obligation to apply for the NHR (Non-Habitual Resident) status by March 31st of the year following the year in which the individual became a tax resident in Portugal, is merely a declarative obligation and not a constitutive right, and the non-fulfillment of this requirement cannot result in the failure to obtain the NHR status. So if you don’t file on time, it may not prohibit the application however, the right to request taxation as an NHR can only be realised through the challenge of the IRS tax assessment act of the year in which the registration as an NHR was denied.

Your content goes here. Edit or remove this text inline or in the module Content settings. You can also style every aspect of this content in the module Design settings and even apply custom CSS to this text in the module Advanced settings.

The straight answer is a resounding ‘yes’!

If you are receiving or plan to drawdown from pensions to provide for your life in Portugal, then Portugal is still very much doable.

You must consider making some changes to the way and/or where your pensions are currently structured and held. You will need a good, suitably qualified Independent Financial Adviser to help you. They will be able to guide you appropriately.

Ingenium Financial is a bespoke financial advisory able to devote more time to providing you with an unrivalled personal service.

Contact us to learn more about NHR 2024 and find out how we can help.

So far, the US has imposed three rounds of tariffs on more than $250bn worth of Chinese goods. The duties range from 10% to 25% and cover a wide range of industrial and consumer items – from handbags to railway equipment.

What is the impact so far?

Both US and international firms have said they are being harmed. Fears about a further escalation have rattled investors and hit stock markets. The IMF warned a full-blown trade war would weaken the global economy.

How to Invest During a Trade War?

Goldman Sachs gave its take early last week, forecasting that services-oriented companies (think Amazon, Google, and Microsoft) that are “less exposed to trade policy” will likely have an easier time than goods-producing companies (such as Apple, ExxonMobil, and Johnson & Johnson) that are more vulnerable to trade headwinds.

The overall message is being balanced and diversified. Structured return products are also coming into their own during times of volatility.

High quality merchant bank are currently offering returns of between 6-12% p.a.in USD

“It’s just important to have your risk controls in place to be able to weather the storm.”

Trade Deficit

Today statistics were released regarding the size of the current trade deficit – the catalyst for the current trade war.

It doesn’t appear to be going the way President Trump envisaged.

By the end of last year, China exported $324bn more in goods and services to the US than it imported.

That’s a record surplus, more than a quarter bigger than it was before Mr Trump came to power!

China Debt

Also the market appeared to express concern that China’s economy was slowing and that National Dept compared to GDP has mushroomed.

It has mushroomed in the last 10 years due to in the main part the construction of infrastructure spending.

Thousands of miles of new railways and dozens of new underground systems and airports constructed.

To my mind they are good things for a country to borrow money to do?

So called ‘good debt’

Debt as a proportion of the economy has soared, from 140% of GDP in 2007 to nearly 260% now.

Japan has 253% but the press don’t talk about it at all.

Greece 178.60% and seems to spend it on social welfare provision including allowing early retirement at the age of 50 for trombonists bakers, hairdressers and masseurs, who are allowed to retire early because of the nature of their work.

OK  – so may be they reduced this list of eligible people down to 100 in 2016 , but you get my point!

When President Trump send a tweet that upsets the market  – China tech mamoths such as Tencent and Alibaba seem to be affected.

Their business models are so diversified and their long term prospects they represent a great opportunity.

Holding them in a balanced fund such as the Fidelity China Consumer could be a good medium term hold.